Let’s Talk About Aliens
The odds are, “less than one in 10 billion trillion…” that we are not the first.
The headline of a recent article in the New York Times immediately caught my eye. It talked about the recent discoveries of exoplanets- planets from outside of our solar system. In June of 2016 astronomers announced the discovery of 1,284 new planets, bringing the total number of exoplanets thus far to over 3,000. Of course they don’t all have life- just look at our own solar system to extrapolate- but even if one did, or HAD life at one point… that’s incredible!
If you’re into reading sci-fi romances, chances are you believe that aliens exist. Or, at least you’re open to the notion. I’m not ashamed to say that I COMPLETELY believe that there’s life in our own Milky Way Galaxy. I have no doubts. The more I research astrophysics and astronomy for my books, the more vehemently I believe. What’s interesting about this NY Times article is that it talks not only about alien civilizations that may exist right now, but it focuses on if they’ve EVER existed.
Are you ready for some science?
In 1961 astronomer Frank Drake was asked to host a meeting to discuss communication with extraterrestrial life. Since the odds of contact with aliens depended on how many civilizations existed in the galaxy, Drake “identified seven factors on which that number would depend, and incorporated them into an equation.” Here are the factors:
-Number of stars born each year
-fraction of stars that had planets
-number of planets per star that traveled in orbits in the right location for life to form (Goldilocks zone)
-fraction of such planets where life actually got stated
-fraction of such planets on which intelligence evolved
-average lifetime of a technological civilization.
(I’m missing one and I’m not sure what it is!)
Right now, 3 out of 7 of Drake’s factors are known. “We know the number of stars born each year. We know that the percentage of stars hosting planets is about 100. And we also know that about 20-25 percent of those plants are in the right place for life to form.” “This puts is in a position, for the first time, to say something definitive about extraterrestrial civilizations…”
They’re conclusion: “According to our finding… a trillion civilizations still would have appeared over the course of cosmic history.”
Remember that our universe is old… like REALLY old! (Our own Milky Way galaxy is 13.21 billion years old) These scientists are talking about the universe’s entire history, not just right now. But even taking that into account, the number of possible civilizations is mind boggling.
The author of the article sums it up by saying, “…given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational.”
In my own words- if you still doubt that aliens exist, or have ever existed, then you’re a wee-bit crazy. I don’t mean that cruelly; I really don’t! But given the overwhelming evidence for life outside of Earth, if you still don’t believe that ETs exist then there’s something blocking the rational part of your brain: either something that you’ve been taught since birth, a distrust of science, or a hefty dose of denial.
As for me, I’m going to keep an open mind about our place in the universe and keep researching articles and science that furthers my understanding of our reality.
Below are the links if you’d like to read the articles for yourself.
Odds Are Less Than 1 in 10 BILLION TRILLION That We Are Not The First
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